Amazing this is already in motion given what the country has gone thru in these two years, but here we are with Donald Trump officially kicking off his 2020 reelection campaign with yet no word still from Robert Mueller. Perhaps, since 1968, America has never been more divided. A country which cannot govern itself coherently at the present and yet here we have Trump beginning his reelection bid in El Paso using his wall still as the impetus of his movement.
It’s truly fascinating how this person still appeals to somewhere around 35-40% of those who vote. I would never attach all that much to polls because Trump is a completely unconventional politician in completely unconventional times. It wouldn’t shock me if he somehow found himself re-elected. I can’t believe I just wrote that, but I did.
Think back to 2016 and what was the best thing Trump had going for him politically in the general election besides James Comey?
My answer would be the Democratic Party was divided between the Clinton and Bernie Sanders camps. No real unity. No real message.
They swore they would learn from this, but I’m cynical as I now see so many different candidates on the Democratic side that I literally can’t list them without using Google. On one hand, it’s good to see this many people throwing their hats into the ring. On the other hand, if you have so many different conflicting themes you probably won’t have a united simple theme at the end of the day.
Let me give an example. One day after her first speech lauding Medicare for all–Kamala Harris had to rewalk that part of her first day platform because the moderates in her own thought that was too much. Same thing with AOC and her New Green Deal. I don’t remember FDR wading around with 20 other candidates from his own party challenging him for the presidency.
Think back to the Dem convention in 2016 and the divisions which never healed in the Bernie Sanders camp. Trump currently still holds around 81% of the Republican vote. If he survives Mueller these people will stay with him. If the Dems go way too far to the left then part of the middle will go with him again.
In reality the election will probably be decided in Florida, maybe Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Think about everything which is going on in Virginia currently. How will that square with independents who are repelled by Trump, yet in reality can’t really see any difference in a progressive state like Virginia which gave Hillary Clinton her running mate in Tim Kane in 2016.
Then there’s Howard Schultz or someone else like him. Will there be an Independent candidate who can take enough away from the middle to keep Trump in office. Think Ross Perot in 1988, but only this time in reverse as it would hurt the Dem more than Trump and whoever he has on the ticket with him this time around. I think Trump will have a woman running mate this time around. I also don’t see anyone left standing in the Republican Party who could challenge him right now given the fact they’re all terrified of him politically.
Again, I would throw the polls out. They didn’t matter at the end in 2016 and with two years to go anything can happen. People vote their base beliefs or at the least the economy and how it affects them. Remember what Bill Clinton said, “It’s the economy, stupid.”
Bush 41 had an approval rating of 89% following victory in Desert Storm, then lost two years later to the governor from Arkansas named Bill Clinton.
Two years is a decade in these times. The game and the rules have changed.
My advice to the Dems is get a message, keep it simple, and don’t lose yourself chasing Donald Trump down his rabbit holes. Quit following Trump on Twitter and discover exactly what it is you believe in as a party.