With 25 games left in the regular season I don’t feel like I’d want to bet for or against this team once the playoffs begin. I had the Thunder as a No. 4 or a No. 3 seed in the West before the season, yet there are times when I watch them I feel like they could be the second best team in the entire league. A prime example being the last game played before the break when I had them No.2 heading into New Orleans where they promptly stunk losing to a Pelicans team which is in complete disorder.
I could see the Thunder losing in the first round for the third straight season or getting on a nice little run and making the conference finals.
Who would know?
But I know the Thunder without Durant are 3-8 in post season and have not sniffed a first round series win. The Thunder have not been relevant in post season without Durant. You would think with a solid first seven rotation of George, Westbrook, Adams, Grant, Schroder, Ferguson and Noel this team should be built better for post season. For me, Markieff Morris is a complete wildcard. He could help or he could show up at the arena stark naked with a Roger Stone tattoo on his chest. I have no idea. His career to me seems to have had some real emotional swings. So we’ll see.
We know the Thunder are good in transition. We know with Adams they hit the offensive glass hard. They’ve gotten better as far as assists to turnovers per ratio. We know since Alex Abrines went awol the Thunder of all things came together as a three point shooting team. I think their free shooting will be fine because for the most part you’d expect the ball to be in the hands of George, Schroder or Westbrook in the last six minutes of games. Steven Adams is the only top seven player who makes me nervous from the line.
This is a team which on paper and per payroll should be right there in the Western Conference Semi-Finals with a fighting chance to advance to the Western Conference Finals. This is a team to me which should have enough maturity to finish 17-8 or so in these final 25 games to finish somewhere around the 54-55 win range. If they don’t win 54 games I wouldn’t have Paul George as my MVP. It that’s simple. Do something of consequence as a team. Show me something.
If this doesn’t happen and the Thunder again exit in the first round I’d consider their season a massive underachievement. Of the Thunder’s remaining 25 games it breaks with the Thunder playing fourteen games at home. In twenty of these games the Thunder will be playing teams with a chance to make the playoffs. If I were going to circle one team in this entire league from this point forward which should be playing with a massive competitive chip on their collective shoulder it would be the Thunder.
But for me the elephant in the room always comes back to Russell Westbrook and his decision making in the last six minutes of games against good teams when it matters. The play in the road loss to Boston being a prime example when he pushed the ball frenetically on a 1-3 situation. That’s not having numbers. You push the ball when you have the odd man advantage. It is the most basic premise in offensive transition in both basketball and hockey. It’s basically just calibrating the odds in your favor. And that’s what still to a certain degree scares me about Russell Westbrook even though it’s obvious he’s at least trying to change. But can he change when all the chips are on the table…that’s the question for me?
So for while the Thunder’s three point shooting and overall team defense are certainly big keys, the biggest key is Russell Westbrook.